Competition
Serie A predictions
Serie A is our most accurate competition and one of our loss-making ones. 70% of tips correct, and a P/L of −6.12. That contradiction is the most instructive thing on this site.
| Measure | Serie A | All competitions |
|---|---|---|
| Graded picks | 10 | 157 |
| Tip accuracy | 70% | 43.3% |
| Draw rate | 10% | — |
| Home wins | 30% | — |
| Value bets | 6 | 73 |
| P/L | −6.12 | −46.02 |
Right seven times in ten, and still down
This is not a bug, and it is worth understanding because it undermines the number every prediction site advertises.
Our tip is the most likely outcome. Our bet is the one with the best expected value at the price on offer. When a market prices a favourite correctly, being right about that favourite earns almost nothing — you are paid 1.30 for information the market already had.
Serie A is a well-priced, well-understood league. The model identified the likely winner seven times in ten, and the market had identified the same winner, so there was nothing to collect. The six value bets went on the occasions the model disagreed with the price, and those disagreements did not come in.
The comparison that makes the point. Brasileirão: 44% accuracy, and our best P/L anywhere at +12.51. Worse at picking winners, better at making money, because the value came at longer prices. How value betting works.
An unusual home-advantage profile
Home wins in our Serie A sample run at 30%, against 70% in the Premier League. Italian football has long had a reputation for tactical away performances, and whatever the cause, the model fits home advantage per competition rather than importing an English assumption into an Italian league.
The draw rate is low at 10%, which is the other half of why accuracy holds up here. Draws are what the model predicts worst.
Caveats that matter
- Ten graded picks. Seven correct. One different weekend and this reads 60%. Treat it as a direction, not a measurement.
- Six bets is nothing. A −6.12 result on six bets tells you about variance, not about the strategy.
- The model sees goals and results only. No injuries, no lineups, no European fixture congestion.
Today's Serie A fixtures are on the board. Compare every competition.
Figures from the forward log, current as of 27 August 2026.