Signal: MODEL = our statistical model · MARKET = bookmaker consensus (N books) · PRICE = from an indicative price, margin removed · — = no signal (home-advantage baseline).
| Time | League | Match | 1 | X | 2 | Tip | Safer | Best odds (1/X/2)Odds | FT | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League Two | Chesterfield FC v Tranmere Rovers | 51% | 24% | 25% | Home win | — | — | — | MODEL | |
| Segunda | Albacete v SD Eibar | 48% | 27% | 25% | Home win | — | 2.94 / 3.45 / 2.60 | — | MODEL | |
| Germany | RB Leipzig v FSV Mainz 05 | 65% | 20% | 15% | Home win | 1X @ 1.14 | 1.45 / 5.27 / 6.45 | — | MARKET (2 books) | |
| UEFA | Finland v Albania | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | — | 2.50 / 3.29 / 3.20 | — | — | |
| Brazil B | Avai v Ceará | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | — | 2.68 / 3.38 / 2.98 | — | — | |
| League One | Barnsley v Milton Keynes Dons | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | — | — | — | — | |
| League One | Blackpool v Leicester City | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | — | — | — | — | |
| League One | Reading v Bradford City | 42% | 29% | 29% | Home win | — | — | — | MODEL | |
| League One | Bromley FC v Wycombe Wanderers | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | — | — | — | — | |
| League One | Burton Albion v Huddersfield Town | 26% | 27% | 46% | Away win | — | — | — | MODEL | |
| League One | Sheffield Wednesday v Cambridge United | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | — | — | — | — | |
| League One | Luton v Doncaster Rovers | 75% | 16% | 9% | Home win | — | — | — | MODEL | |
| League One | Leyton Orient v Plymouth Argyle | 45% | 26% | 29% | Home win | — | — | — | MODEL | |
| League One | Wigan Athletic v Mansfield Town | 63% | 20% | 18% | Home win | — | — | — | MODEL | |
| League One | Peterborough United v Notts County | 27% | 24% | 49% | Away win | — | — | — | MODEL | |
| League One | Wimbledon v Stevenage | 47% | 29% | 24% | Home win | — | — | — | MODEL | |
| League Two | Accrington Stanley v Cheltenham Town | 50% | 24% | 26% | Home win | — | — | — | MODEL | |
| League Two | Crewe Alexandra v Bristol Rovers | 39% | 32% | 29% | Home win | — | — | — | MODEL | |
| League Two | Colchester United v Port Vale | 28% | 30% | 42% | Away win | — | — | — | MODEL | |
| League Two | Walsall v Crawley Town | 75% | 15% | 10% | Home win | — | — | — | MODEL | |
| League Two | Exeter City v Rotherham United | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | — | — | — | — | |
| League Two | Gillingham v Newport County | 61% | 21% | 18% | Home win | — | — | — | MODEL | |
| League Two | Grimsby Town v Shrewsbury Town | 40% | 31% | 28% | Home win | — | 1.52 / 4.31 / 4.78 | — | MODEL | |
| League Two | Rochdale v Swindon Town | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | — | — | — | — | |
| League Two | Salford City v Fleetwood Town | 54% | 22% | 24% | Home win | — | — | — | MODEL | |
| League Two | Northampton Town v Oldham Athletic | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | — | — | — | — | |
| Germany | 1. FC Köln v SC Freiburg | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | — | 2.02 / 4.00 / 3.60 | — | — | |
| Segunda | Almería v Burgos CF | 61% | 20% | 19% | Home win | 1X @ 1.18 | 1.67 / 4.04 / 6.00 | — | MODEL | |
| Germany | Eintracht Frankfurt v Bayern Munich | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | X2 @ 1.15 | 5.75 / 5.32 / 1.46 | — | — | |
| UEFA | Croatia v England | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | X2 @ 1.29 | 4.35 / 4.00 / 1.91 | — | — | |
| UEFA | Belarus v San Marino | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | 1X @ 1.03 | 1.12 / 13.00 / 29.00 | — | — | |
| UEFA | Iceland v Bulgaria | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | 1X @ 1.13 | 1.48 / 4.70 / 8.40 | — | — | |
| UEFA | Estonia v Luxembourg | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | — | 3.20 / 3.20 / 2.60 | — | — | |
| Segunda | Sabadell FC v Andorra CF | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | — | 2.14 / 3.35 / 3.89 | — | — | |
| Segunda | Cádiz CF v Leganés | 40% | 32% | 28% | Home win | — | 3.10 / 3.25 / 2.60 | — | MODEL | |
| Argentina | Defensa y Justicia v San Lorenzo | 34% | 32% | 34% | Home win | 1X @ 1.28 | 2.23 / 3.00 / 4.10 | — | MODEL | |
| UEFA | Spain v Czech Republic | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | 1X @ 1.02 | 1.10 / 14.00 / 37.00 | — | — | |
| UEFA | North Macedonia v Scotland | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | X2 @ 1.22 | 5.40 / 3.65 / 1.84 | — | — | |
| UEFA | Switzerland v Slovenia | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | 1X @ 1.09 | 1.37 / 5.30 / 11.00 | — | — | |
| Brazil B | Atletico Goianiense v América Mineiro | 60% | 24% | 16% | Home win | 1X @ 1.10 | 1.41 / 5.08 / 9.40 | — | MODEL | |
| Argentina | Atlético Tucuman v Barracas Central | 48% | 28% | 24% | Home win | 1X @ 1.20 | 1.95 / 3.10 / 5.00 | — | MODEL | |
| Argentina | Newells Old Boys v Lanus | 41% | 32% | 27% | Home win | — | 2.95 / 3.03 / 2.80 | — | MODEL | |
| Brazil B | Cuiabá v Ponte Preta | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | 1X @ 1.02 | 1.17 / 8.20 / 18.00 | — | — | |
| Brazil B | Botafogo-SP v Vila Nova | 33% | 35% | 32% | Draw | — | 2.48 / 3.29 / 3.17 | — | MODEL | |
| Série A | CA Mineiro v RB Bragantino | 51% | 26% | 23% | Home win | — | — | — | MODEL | |
| Argentina | Argentinos Juniors v CA Tigre BA | 52% | 25% | 22% | Home win | — | — | — | MODEL | |
| Argentina | Atlético Huracán v Aldosivi Mar del Plata | 61% | 21% | 18% | Home win | 1X @ 1.15 | 1.71 / 3.50 / 6.20 | — | MODEL |
The next few days, a day at a time. Model probabilities are shown for every fixture straight away. Odds arrive later. We buy them near kick-off rather than days ahead, because a price fetched early goes out of date long before the match. “opens nearer kick-off” means exactly that, not a missing number.
| Time | League | Match | 1 | X | 2 | Tip | Safer | Best odds (1/X/2)Odds | FT | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | VfL Wolfsburg v Hamburger SV | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | — | — | — | — | |
| Segunda | Real Sociedad B v Granada CF | 42% | 27% | 31% | Home win | — | 2.65 / 3.40 / 2.84 | — | MODEL | |
| UEFA | Azerbaijan v Lithuania | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | — | — | — | — | |
| Germany | VfB Stuttgart v Union Berlin | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | — | — | — | — | |
| Segunda | Sporting Gijón v Celta Fortuna | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | 1X @ 1.17 | 1.60 / 4.33 / 6.00 | — | — | |
| UEFA | Malta v Andorra | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | — | — | — | — | |
| UEFA | Kosovo v Austria | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | — | — | — | — | |
| Segunda | CD Castellón v AD Ceuta FC | 43% | 29% | 28% | Home win | 1X @ 1.07 | 1.27 / 6.85 / 11.00 | — | MODEL | |
| Segunda | Las Palmas v Real Valladolid CF | 46% | 31% | 23% | Home win | — | 2.22 / 3.40 / 3.41 | — | MODEL | |
| Germany | 1. FC Nürnberg v TSG Hoffenheim | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | — | — | — | — | |
| UEFA | Wales v Denmark | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | X2 @ 1.27 | 4.50 / 4.10 / 1.84 | — | — | |
| UEFA | Greece v Germany | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | — | 3.60 / 3.78 / 2.12 | — | — | |
| UEFA | Republic of Ireland v Israel | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | 1X @ 1.29 | 1.99 / 3.64 / 4.10 | — | — | |
| UEFA | Portugal v Norway | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | 1X @ 1.33 | 1.85 / 4.70 / 4.10 | — | — | |
| UEFA | Netherlands v Serbia | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | 1X @ 1.05 | 1.24 / 6.91 / 12.80 | — | — | |
| Segunda | Girona FC v Mallorca | 45% | 27% | 28% | Home win | — | 2.28 / 3.60 / 3.50 | — | — | |
| Argentina | Talleres v Belgrano de Cordoba | 45% | 32% | 22% | Home win | — | 2.58 / 3.10 / 3.02 | — | MODEL | |
| Argentina | Boca Juniors v Union Santa Fe | 69% | 19% | 12% | Home win | — | — | — | MODEL | |
| Argentina | Argentinos Juniors v CA Tigre BA | 52% | 25% | 22% | Home win | 1X @ 1.22 | 1.89 / 3.41 / 5.40 | — | MODEL | |
| Argentina | Sarmiento de Junin v River Plate | 28% | 30% | 42% | Away win | X2 @ 1.15 | 5.40 / 3.54 / 1.70 | — | MODEL | |
| Argentina | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto v Racing Club | 35% | 30% | 35% | Away win | X2 @ 1.24 | 4.60 / 3.15 / 2.04 | — | MODEL |
Every pick here was logged before kick-off and graded against the real result, win or lose. Some leagues are not served by our primary results provider; where a secondary source settled the match we show the pick marked unverified, and it is never counted in the accuracy or ROI above. Anything we could not settle at all does not appear.
Two different picks, and they disagree often. The Tip is the outcome the model thinks is most likely. The Value bet is the outcome whose bookmaker price the model thinks is too generous, which is frequently a different result, and usually the opposite one: across our graded record 48% of value bets backed a selection the tip did not, and 84% of those backed the other team outright. So a row can show a green Tip hit beside a red Value bet, and nothing is wrong with it. The dot grades the tip; the value-bet colour grades the bet: green won, red lost. A ≠ in the value-bet cell marks one placed on a different selection from the tip.
| Date | League | Match | Tip | FT | Result | Tip hit | Value bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Série A | São Paulo FC v Santos FC | Home win | 1–2 | Away win | TIP MISS | — |
SportsNator publishes free daily soccer predictions and football betting tips from our own statistical model. We do not scrape other tipsters. For every fixture we show 1X2 win probabilities, the best bookmaker odds, and a Signal telling you whether those numbers are our model's or the bookmakers' consensus. Only model fixtures carry a value bet, where our probability beats the market. Coverage includes the World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Brazil Série A and more. Picks in the competitions our results feed covers are logged before kick-off and graded against the real result. That is the record shown above, and it is the only thing we count. The rest of the board is coverage: we show a probability for every fixture we can, but leagues outside that feed cannot be settled by any source we have, so those picks are never graded and never enter the record.