Competition
Premier League predictions
The Premier League is where our model performs best, and the reason is unglamorous: English top-flight matches produce fewer draws and more home wins than almost anything else we cover.
| Measure | Premier League | All competitions |
|---|---|---|
| Graded picks | 10 | 157 |
| Tip accuracy | 60% | 43.3% |
| Draw rate | 10% | — |
| Home wins | 70% | — |
| Value bets | 3 | 73 |
| P/L | +11.68 | −46.02 |
Why the model copes here
Two structural features do most of the work.
The draw rate is 10% across our graded sample, against 46% in the Copa Libertadores. Draws are the outcome a goals model predicts worst, so a competition that produces few of them removes most of the difficulty before the model starts.
Home wins run at 70%. The Premier League in our sample has behaved like a home-advantage league, and the Poisson layer fits that per competition rather than assuming a fixed value.
Ten matches is not a season. 60% on ten picks is six correct. One different weekend makes it 50%. This page reports what happened, not what will happen, and the honest overall figure is 43.3% across 157 picks — currently below the always-home baseline.
Where it will struggle
- The top six against each other. Evenly matched sides raise the draw probability, which is where the model is weakest.
- Newly promoted clubs. A side with three matches of top-flight history is shrunk toward the league mean by design, so early predictions for them are close to average until data accumulates.
- Fixture congestion. The model sees goals and results. It does not know a side played 72 hours ago in Europe.
Where the value has been
Only three of our ten Premier League picks cleared the value threshold. That is expected: the Premier League is the most heavily priced football market on earth, and a market with dozens of bookmakers and enormous volume leaves little room for a public model to find a genuine edge.
Those three returned +11.68. On three bets that is variance, not evidence, and we would say the same if it were −11.68.
Today's Premier League fixtures are on the board, alongside every other competition we cover. Full comparison by competition.
Figures from the forward log, current as of 27 August 2026.