Competition
Brasileirão predictions
Brazil's Série A is our largest graded sample and our best return: 25 picks, 44% accuracy, +12.51. It is also the clearest case of lower accuracy earning more money than higher accuracy elsewhere.
| Measure | Brasileirão | Serie A (Italy) |
|---|---|---|
| Graded picks | 25 | 10 |
| Tip accuracy | 44% | 70% |
| Draw rate | 28% | 10% |
| Home wins | 52% | 30% |
| Value bets | 10 | 6 |
| P/L | +12.51 | −6.12 |
Worse at picking winners, better at making money
Put those two columns side by side and the point makes itself. Italian Serie A tips were right 70% of the time and lost money. Brazilian Série A tips were right 44% of the time and made it.
The difference is price. Serie A is a heavily modelled, tightly priced European league where being right about the favourite pays 1.30. The Brasileirão is priced by fewer books, with more variance in team form across a 38-round season played through a Brazilian calendar, and the occasions our model disagreed with the market came at longer odds. Ten value bets, at prices that paid when they landed.
This is the whole argument for betting on value rather than on tips, and it is why we colour the Bet column by whether the bet won rather than the tip.
What the model sees here
A 28% draw rate sits between the European leagues and the Libertadores, and a 52% home-win rate is a genuine home advantage the Poisson layer fits directly. The competition also has the deepest history available to us of any non-European league, which matters: the model fits on every completed match in the season, and a 20-team round-robin generates plenty.
Twenty-five picks and ten bets is still a small sample. A +12.51 return on ten bets is a good run, not proof of an edge. Our overall record is −46.02 across 73 bets, and that is the number with the most behind it.
Known weaknesses
- Continental commitments. Clubs in the Libertadores rotate heavily for league fixtures, and the model cannot see a rested XI coming.
- Travel. Brazil is a continent. A side crossing four time zones midweek looks identical to the model.
- Mid-season squad churn. The Brazilian transfer calendar does not align with Europe's, and shrinkage takes time to catch up.
Today's Brasileirão fixtures are on the board. Compare every competition.
Figures from the forward log, current as of 27 August 2026.